It is too early to tell. If Manaf Tlas officially defects it may be a sign. But if there are cracks in the ranks of the ruling group, it may signal the beginning of the demise of the regime. I remember as a youngster I read somewhere in Lenin that when the ruling class shows signs of dissension, it signals the ripening of the "objective conditions" for revolutionary action. Too bad the revolutionary mantle is worn by the likes of Muslim Brotherhood and Mr. Ghalyun.